Most writing about film investment is either a sales pitch or a horror story. This series is neither.
I produce independent films with international distribution. I have signed these deals and read the waterfalls. I have watched money come back, and watched it not come back. This is the business from the inside, written for the person deciding whether to write the check.
This page is the map. It fills in as the series publishes.
Linked titles are ready to read. Plain titles are on the way, one or two a week.
The six-part backbone
Read these in order. They build the full picture.
1. The 3.4% number that’s misleading you - the return stat everyone quotes, and why it lies.
2. Where indie money actually comes from - the real capital stack behind a film.
3. The waterfall: why investors are last in line - how revenue gets split, and where you sit.
4. Five red flags in an indie film deal - the five things that end the due diligence early.
5. The institutional case for cinema as an asset class - why funds and family offices are starting to look.
6. The best indie window in years, and why - the market right now, and what it means.
The case files
Standalone pieces that prove the arguments above. Read in any order, as they land.
The numbers
- “Terrifier 3” made $89.2M on a $2M budget
- Sundance acquisition multiples hit 14x in 2025
- The UK’s 53% film tax credit and what it means for your money
The case studies
- “The Blair Witch Project”: $60K budget, $248M global
- “Paranormal Activity”: $15K budget, 645,000% return
- Everyone copies A24. Almost nobody studies what killed Cannon Films.
The myths
- “AI killed the indie market” - it didn’t
- “Hollywood accounting steals your returns” - the real story
The mechanics
- Equity at risk is not the budget number
- Slate beats single-pic. Math, not opinion.
- California changed everything in January 2026
- Section 181 is gone. Now what?
The voices
- Schuyler Moore on why projections lie
- Stephen Follows on the one thing that predicts returns
- “How do I actually invest in a movie?”
- “Is 200% recoupment fair?”
Where to start
If you have ten minutes, read Part 1. If you have one, read Part 4. The five red flags will tell you more about a deal than a full pitch deck.
New piece every week. Subscribe and the next one lands in your inbox.
Download the “38-point due diligence checklist” below.
